ILO News — 17 January 2022, Geneva
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has downgraded its forecast for labour market recovery in 2022, projecting a deficit in hours worked globally equivalent to 52 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. The previous full-year estimate in May 2021 projected a deficit of 26 million full-time equivalent jobs. While this latest projection is an improvement on the situation in 2021, it remains almost two per cent below the number of global hours worked pre-pandemic.
Global unemployment is expected to remain above pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2023. The 2022 level is estimated at 207 million, compared to 186 million in 2019. The downgrade reflects, to some extent, the impact that recent variants of COVID-19, such as Delta and Omicron, are having on the world of work. The report also cautions that the overall impact on employment is significantly greater than represented in these figures because many people have left the labour force.
The WESO Trends report warns of stark differences in the impact the crisis is having across groups of workers and countries. The European and North American regions are showing the most encouraging signs of recovery, while South-East Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean have the most negative outlook. The disproportionate impact on women’s employment is expected to last in coming years. ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said: “There can be no real recovery from this pandemic without a broad-based labour market recovery. And to be sustainable, this recovery must be based on the principles of decent work — including health and safety, equity, social protection and social dialogue.”