Simulations Show Super-Spreading Events Pushed the Exponential Growth Phase of COVID-19

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By Bob Yirka, MedicalXPress — 23 September 2020

A trio of researchers from The Polish Academy of Sciences and The University of Warsaw found that super-spreader events pushed the exponential growth phase of COVID-19, with the reproduction number potentially as high as 11 in March and April 2020. Their computer simulation showed that a pandemic would start slowly but accelerate dramatically if infected people attended large gatherings such as football games or concerts. Real-world history backed up the simulations — when countries like Spain and Italy cancelled large gatherings, the spread of the pandemic slowed dramatically even without a lockdown. Published in the journal Royal Society Open Science.