By Dr Barbara J Sahakian, DSc and Dr Aleya A Marzuki, PhD, The University of Cambridge — The Conversation, 30 November 2021
We make decisions every day, many of which are so straightforward that we hardly notice we are making them. But we tend to struggle when faced with decisions that have uncertain outcomes, such as during the pandemic. Now our new research, published in the journal JAMA Network Open, gives a clue about how uncertainty affects decision-making.
Scientists typically test decision-making under uncertainty using “probabilistic tasks,” in which study participants can choose from two or more options, each with a specific probability of providing a reward. Humans generally use two decision-making strategies when faced with uncertainty: exploitation (frequently choosing familiar options with a higher certainty of reward) and exploration (trying out unfamiliar choices). In an uncertain and changing environment, it is thought that the best strategy is to flexibly alternate between these two approaches.
In our study, we demonstrated that people with OCD struggle to make decisions when they are uncertain. We asked 50 teenagers with OCD and 53 teenagers without OCD to complete a probabilistic task. Teenagers with OCD displayed excessive exploration, showing a tendency to switch choices and select the less rewarding option more often. This exploration could be a strategy for them to seek out information until they feel certain.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a great deal of uncertainty for everyone, which in turn seems to have increased our tendency for exploration in the form of information-seeking. A study has shown that perceived uncertainty has led to people seeking more information about COVID via social networking apps and online news media. However, excessive information-seeking can lead to high levels of stress and eventually burnout. There are ways to combat pandemic uncertainty: trust information that seems consistent over time; set timers on social media use; seek out positive content. Evidence-based methods to improving decision-making under uncertainty include playing brain-training games, getting good sleep and nutrition, and having social support. This article has been republished under Creative Commons licence.