By Professor Hans Heesterbeek, Utrecht University — The Conversation UK — 12 October 2020
Based on experience with other infectious diseases, there is little reason to believe that SARS-CoV-2 will go away any time soon, even when vaccines become available. A more realistic scenario is that it will join the large and growing family of endemic infectious diseases in the human population. The vast majority of people are still susceptible to some degree, meaning there is sufficient fuel for the fire to keep burning for quite some time. Depending on whether immunity from natural infection or vaccination is permanent or temporary, we may need yearly vaccine updates (like influenza) or control by vaccination at some optimal age (like many childhood infections). Endemic disease is therefore the most likely outcome.