By: Spokesman Newsroom
BASSETERRE, St. Kitts (Wednesday 13th August 2025)-Senior Meteorological Officer Elmo Burke is urging members of the public to always pay close attention to all advisories issued during the hurricane season, as he dismissed a common mistaken belief that weather experts are “trying to be God.”
He made the disclosure during the first episode of the new season of NEMA’s (National Emergency Management Agency) ‘From Danger to Safety’ aired live on Tuesday 12th August 2025.
“…some of the main misconceptions in terms of forecasting is persons think that we are trying to be God. We are not trying to be God. What we are trying to do, we’re looking at the weather conditions at the time.”
He went on to say: “…additionally, when we do our forecast, what we try to do is give a probability of the best of the conditions that are likely to experience within the next whether it be 12 or 24 hours as it may be. So what we are doing is we’re giving you the likelihood of conditions occurring. So we are not saying with 100% certainty that this will happen because we’re not God and we do recognize that weather is dynamic in nature. The weather can change and it’s important for us as meteorologists and forecasters and even the observers to continuously monitor the evolution or the changes in the weather conditions.”
Burke stressed that while forecasts are grounded in scientific analysis, they are always subject to change.
“…we do recognize that weather is quite dynamic in nature, and because of this dynamism, we do recognize that sometimes our forecast may be perceived as wrong but bear in mind, what we would have done, we would have given you a snapshot of conditions that are likely to be based on what we are analyzing at the time. However, subtle changes can happen and that can alter forecasts and as such we will make the necessary adjustments in our updated forecast…”
and it’s important for the general public not just to listen for the forecast one time one time per day it’s important that if we here at the met office we issue our forecast twice per day so we will be providing regular updates so that regular updates will allow you to recognize that there are changes happening, and we will try to capture those changes in our updated forecast.”
He is particularly advising individuals to be on the alert as we enter the peak season.
“So again, just want to say we do recognize that we are in the hurricane season, and it’s important that the general public start to have their plans in place. We do recognize that we are going into the peak season. It’s important that you have your plans in place. If you don’t know what to do, you can always reach out to NEMA and NEMA can provide you some assistance, some guidance as to what you can do to stay safe, especially as we go into the peak period of the hurricane season.”
Burke further explained that weather prediction is never foolproof.
“In relation to the prediction of weather, we do recognize that it’s a prediction, it’s a forecast. So it is not 100% fool proof. At times, yes, the forecast would be in line with what is actually happening. However, because there is the chance that it may not happen, that’s why we look at the probability. So when we do in a forecast, we’re actually given the probability of weather conditions occurring at a particular time, at a particular place, and in a particular space. So weather is dynamic in nature. So these changes, subtle changes can happen, and it’s important for us as meteorologists and forecasters to monitor these weather conditions and make the necessary adjustments so that it could be in line or as close as possible to what will happen. So our aim is to get to perfect conditions.”
“However, because we are not God, what we try to do is give you a snapshot of what the conditions are likely to be, and we would give you the probability of those weather conditions occurring,” he shared.
For general weather information, individuals can contact NEMA via 465-1000 (WhatsApp included) or visit Facebook-NEMA-NationalEmergencyManagementAgencySKN).